INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE 

Home prices could be stabilizing. Zillow.com reported the annual decline in home prices in Q2 was smaller than in Q1. Most significantly, this was the first decrease in the rate of annual decline since the fall of 2007. In addition, in June the volume of home sales rose 3.8%.

Unfortunately, foreclosure-related filings grew 7% in July over June, according to RealtyTrac. The media of course hammered this stat. But we need to remember that foreclosure activity is concentrated in just a few areas. RealtyTrac also reported that for the first six months of this year 43% of the foreclosure filings occurred in just two states.

Good news on the mortgage-rate front. The Fed announced after last week’s meeting that it would continue its program to purchase up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage backed securities through the end of the year to help keep mortgage rates down. But buyers on the fence should note that’s just a few months away.
>> Review of Last Week

A SLIGHT SLIP… The markets were unable to extend their month-long gains for another week, as all indexes slid just a tad by the time trading came to an end on Friday. But the declines were small, especially compared to all the ground that’s been gained since the March low. The S&P 500 is still up 50% since then and up 11.2% for the year.

The problem? Investors were disappointed with a handful of economic reports, including wholesale and business inventories, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Retail Sales were indeed down 0.1% for July. But they’re up at a 4.8% annual rate over the last three months AND auto sales are up for the fourth month in a row, growing 2.4% in July. On top of that, we got in-line to better-than-expected earnings from Wal-Mart, JCPenney, Nordstrom, Kohl’s and Macy’s. Go figure.

More positive news included July CPI numbers that show inflation is still in check, plus stronger-than-expected Q2 productivity and July industrial production. Coming out of their FOMC meeting, the Fed left the funds rate unchanged and said economic activity is “leveling out”, which is better that just falling at a slower rate, and that financial market conditions have improved since June. They also expressed growing confidence that businesses are making progress in cutting excess inventories. Meanwhile, Germany, France and Hong Kong joined Singapore and South Korea in declaring their recessions are over. Maybe we’re next!

For the week, the Dow was down just 0.5%, to 9321.40; the S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, to 1004.10; while the Nasdaq edged down 0.7%, to 1985.52.

It was a rough week in the bond markets, but prices ended strongly enough. The price of the FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch ended above the previous week’s close of $98.75, rising to $99.88. Mortgage interest rates continued to hold at historically low levels for another week.
>> This Week’s Forecast
OUR FAVORITE TOPIC… The big focus will be housing news. We’ll look into the future of new home sales with Housing Starts and Building Permits on Tuesday. Existing Home Sales come Friday. More insight into housing will come from earnings reports out of Home Depot and Lowe’s.

Target, Sears, John Deere and Hewlett-Packard also reveal earnings. The end of the week features the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may share some interesting nuggets.

>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Source: Pete Minarich of REMN in Bradenton, Florida